What we always knew

The ABC website today reports that Defence Minister Brendan Nelson says securing the world's oil supply is one of the Federal Government's considerations as it decides how long to keep troops in Iraq.

To quote: "The defence update we're releasing today sets out many priorities for Australia's defence and security - and resource security is one of them," he said.

"Obviously the Middle East itself, not only Iraq, but the entire region is an important supplier of energy, oil in particular, to the rest of the world."

Well, well, well (pun intended). The planet warms burning the stuff and people die every day so we can keep on burning the stuff. Nothing more about imaginary weapons of mass destruction (which had been long since destroyed) or terrorist connections (we've given them more reasons - if for some of them there needs to be a reason other than we are different and not Muslim, but things are far more complicated than that).

Walid Aly wrote about hypocrisy from both Al Qaeda and the west yesterday in The Age - I guess there is no more hypocrisy when you can change your tune every 5 minutes with a government and voting public with a 2 minute memory. A government that says "we are not always right but we are never wrong".

It reminds me too much of the documentary "What would Jesus drive?". Young Americans who driver Hummers (an extremely fuel inefficient car) complaining about the price of "gas" saying "we own Iraq". In the 21st century, Jesus should continue to be God and Lord in the face of empire and idols, even when empire is a western government and the idol is the car.

Don't get me wrong, democracy is better than dictatorship and cars are good and useful, even fun. Indeed, a pluralistic society is better than an established faith because there should be freedom for people to believe what they like so that no one is coerced, and indeed freedom to challenge belief and change belief. In this respect, the West has it right.

However, think of the climate, think of justice even for those dark skinned people we don't know half way across the world - the ones who aren't terrorists who just want to live their lives in freedom and peace. Think about someone other than yourself.

Clarke's laws

1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

I happened upon these in the context of a review on a book examining the historical development of the science of anthropogenic warming and tropical cyclones. In particular, the first point was being aimed at Dr Bill Gray, who did much of the founding work on how tropical cyclones form, but now is insistent that human activity is not affecting those processes.

These points are worth pondering, especially as I get older. Hmmm.

Science not scaremongering driving policy

The Howard government in Australia is scaremongering on Labour policies on climate change, pitting the future of the planet (which under global warming scenarios will no doubt impact the ecomony here and elsewhere) on the present economy. So much short term thinking. We need to count the cost. Money spent now is money saved latter.

Labour wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% on 2000 levels by 2050. Good luck, but sorry Liberal party, this is what the third working group summary for policy makers says will keep 2100-2150 temperatures at under 3C warmer than now. Given the impacts we've seen from 0.76C of warming over the last 150 years, this seems like a good idea to me. The summary is available at www.ipcc.ch. It is a good example of where science can and should drive policy.

The dog that will not lie down

Today's AGE newspaper here and here raises the ugly spectre of the climate change sceptic in an age when the debate should be over, and we move on to see how we can make the most of the opportunities to change the economy, develop new technologies, etc. Instead, a former financial, journalist Martin Durkin financed an apparent (not having screened here yet) pack of lies to discredit climate change science. The show, THE Great Global Warming Swindle screened in the UK in March.

Now we learn that there has been pressure on the ABC to screen it here! There are not two sides of a debate here, it is the business and odd geologist lunatic fringe and the vast majority of climate scientists. Enough - shut up and let's get on with it. Ah, but no. A government that has been largely intransigent on the issue won't let the issue die altogether. Ah Nero, Rome burns.

Bullshit, bullshit everywhere

and not a drop to put on my garden!

It seems the moment for the spreading of cow manure! Firstly, there is the "news" about the discovery of the body of Jesus and his family (wife, kids, etc). See Ben Witherington's blog (here) for a nice take on this beat up from Hollywood director James Cameron (the whole idea is as full of holes as the sinking Titanic).

Secondly, a bunch of energy industry people and their right wing political cronies met in Canberra today - the so-called Lavoisier group. It is the usual sorts, mining execs and geologists. Yes, climate change is nothing new (as they rightly point out), but don't they think that climate change scientists are aware of this (see Bill Ruddiman's work to show how this interstadial - period after an ice age - is unlike the others with Co2 and methane going up). The argument is over for all but the ignorant or self interested. We are changing the climate. Shut up and stand aside for those who will act responsibly.